World Cup simulator

Probabilities by nation

Nation	Group stage	Round of 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
France	100%	81%	54%	39%	25%	15%
Spain	100%	72%	50%	38%	24%	15%
England	100%	78%	58%	37%	22%	13%
Argentina	100%	60%	45%	Members only
Portugal	99%	73%	47%	Members only
Brazil	100%	68%	42%	Members only
Germany	100%	70%	37%	Members only
Netherlands	97%	54%	37%	Members only
Ecuador	97%	55%	27%	Members only
Colombia	96%	58%	30%	Members only
Switzerland	99%	72%	34%	Members only
Uruguay	97%	44%	26%	Members only
Norway	96%	52%	26%	Members only
Morocco	95%	49%	26%	Members only
Belgium	97%	68%	38%	Members only
Croatia	96%	49%	23%	Members only
Türkiye	88%	55%	26%	Members only
Austria	93%	33%	15%	Members only
Paraguay	77%	41%	16%	Members only
Mexico	92%	50%	17%	Members only
Japan	79%	28%	12%	Members only
Scotland	87%	34%	12%	Members only
Canada	91%	48%	17%	Members only
Czech Republic	86%	40%	11%	Members only
Egypt	77%	32%	9%	Members only
Senegal	64%	19%	7%	Members only
Sweden	68%	16%	5%	Members only
Ivory Coast	68%	22%	6%	Members only
Bosnia & Herzegovina	81%	33%	10%	Members only
USA	63%	27%	8%	Members only
DR Congo	46%	10%	4%	Members only
Australia	47%	17%	4%	Members only
Algeria	66%	16%	5%	Members only
Ghana	45%	7%	2%	Members only
Cape Verde	29%	6%	1%	Members only
New Zealand	35%	8%	1%	Members only
South Korea	64%	22%	5%	Members only
Iran	55%	15%	3%	Members only
Haiti	3%	0%	0%	Members only
Qatar	7%	1%	0%	Members only
Saudi Arabia	15%	3%	0%	Members only
Panama	14%	1%	0%	Members only
Iraq	5%	1%	0%	Members only
South Africa	33%	8%	1%	Members only
Tunisia	25%	4%	1%	Members only
Jordan	10%	1%	0%	Members only
Curaçao	5%	1%	0%	Members only
Uzbekistan	14%	1%	0%	Members only

France

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

81%

Quarters

54%

Semis

39%

Final

25%

Title

15%

Spain

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

72%

Quarters

50%

Semis

38%

Final

24%

Title

15%

England

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

78%

Quarters

58%

Semis

37%

Final

22%

Title

13%

Argentina

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

60%

Quarters

45%

Members only

Portugal

Group stage

99%

Round of 16

73%

Quarters

47%

Members only

Brazil

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

68%

Quarters

42%

Members only

Germany

Group stage

100%

Round of 16

70%

Quarters

37%

Members only

Netherlands

Group stage

97%

Round of 16

54%

Quarters

37%

Members only

Ecuador

Group stage

97%

Round of 16

55%

Quarters

27%

Members only

Colombia

Group stage

96%

Round of 16

58%

Quarters

30%

Members only

Switzerland

Group stage

99%

Round of 16

72%

Quarters

34%

Members only

Uruguay

Group stage

97%

Round of 16

44%

Quarters

26%

Members only

Norway

Group stage

96%

Round of 16

52%

Quarters

26%

Members only

Morocco

Group stage

95%

Round of 16

49%

Quarters

26%

Members only

Belgium

Group stage

97%

Round of 16

68%

Quarters

38%

Members only

Croatia

Group stage

96%

Round of 16

49%

Quarters

23%

Members only

Türkiye

Group stage

88%

Round of 16

55%

Quarters

26%

Members only

Austria

Group stage

93%

Round of 16

33%

Quarters

15%

Members only

Paraguay

Group stage

77%

Round of 16

41%

Quarters

16%

Members only

Mexico

Group stage

92%

Round of 16

50%

Quarters

17%

Members only

Japan

Group stage

79%

Round of 16

28%

Quarters

12%

Members only

Scotland

Group stage

87%

Round of 16

34%

Quarters

12%

Members only

Canada

Group stage

91%

Round of 16

48%

Quarters

17%

Members only

Czech Republic

Group stage

86%

Round of 16

40%

Quarters

11%

Members only

Egypt

Group stage

77%

Round of 16

32%

Quarters

9%

Members only

Senegal

Group stage

64%

Round of 16

19%

Quarters

7%

Members only

Sweden

Group stage

68%

Round of 16

16%

Quarters

5%

Members only

Ivory Coast

Group stage

68%

Round of 16

22%

Quarters

6%

Members only

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group stage

81%

Round of 16

33%

Quarters

10%

Members only

USA

Group stage

63%

Round of 16

27%

Quarters

8%

Members only

DR Congo

Group stage

46%

Round of 16

10%

Quarters

4%

Members only

Australia

Group stage

47%

Round of 16

17%

Quarters

4%

Members only

Algeria

Group stage

66%

Round of 16

16%

Quarters

5%

Members only

Ghana

Group stage

45%

Round of 16

7%

Quarters

2%

Members only

Cape Verde

Group stage

29%

Round of 16

6%

Quarters

1%

Members only

New Zealand

Group stage

35%

Round of 16

8%

Quarters

1%

Members only

South Korea

Group stage

64%

Round of 16

22%

Quarters

5%

Members only

Iran

Group stage

55%

Round of 16

15%

Quarters

3%

Members only

Haiti

Group stage

3%

Round of 16

0%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Qatar

Group stage

7%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Saudi Arabia

Group stage

15%

Round of 16

3%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Panama

Group stage

14%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Iraq

Group stage

5%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

South Africa

Group stage

33%

Round of 16

8%

Quarters

1%

Members only

Tunisia

Group stage

25%

Round of 16

4%

Quarters

1%

Members only

Jordan

Group stage

10%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Curaçao

Group stage

5%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Uzbekistan

Group stage

14%

Round of 16

1%

Quarters

0%

Members only

Method: match simulation from adjusted attack/defence strengths, thousands of draws. Analysis for information purposes · No incitement to gambling.